Methodology & trust
How the analysis works
A historical-analysis instrument. Here's what that means, and what it deliberately does not claim.
What Bayes analyses
Your own uploaded trading history only — instrument concentration, holding time, timing, sizing, and drawdown behaviour.
How evidence is evaluated
Every finding is checked against sample size and effect size, then labelled lower / moderate / strong evidence.
What comparisons mean
Descriptive summaries of what already happened in your history — never a probability of future results.
What Bayes never claims
No signals, no predictions, no recommendations, no broker ranking, no guarantee of results or safety.
Evidence-strength scale, shown on every finding
Historical, not predictive
Every finding in a Bayes Central report describes a pattern already present in your uploaded trading statement — what happened, not what will happen. The analysis runs against your own historical trades only. It does not model future market conditions, forecast returns, or claim that a past pattern will repeat.
Evidence strength, shown on every finding
Each pattern Bayes Central identifies is checked against how much historical data supports it and how large the observed effect is, and is labelled accordingly — lower evidence, moderate evidence, or strong evidence. A pattern based on a handful of trades is never shown with the same confidence as one supported by a large, statistically significant sample. Where a bootstrap confidence interval or significance test applies, it's part of that finding's technical detail, available to review directly.
Coverage and limitations, stated directly
Bayes Central runs a fixed set of analysis areas against every statement. Your report states plainly how many were fully evaluated, how many didn't have enough qualifying history to assess reliably, and how many couldn't run at all (for example, session-based timing analysis when a broker time offset isn't available) — as an explicit coverage percentage, never silently omitted.
Historical Risk Pressure & Consistency Pressure
These summary readings combine the historically adverse patterns Bayes Central found supporting evidence for in your statement. They are descriptive summaries, not a probability of future loss, a measure of your personal financial risk tolerance, an assessment of account safety, or a measure of trading skill. A low reading means fewer supported adverse patterns were found in what could be analyzed — not that a risk has been disproven.
What Bayes Central never does
- No trading signals — Bayes Central never tells you what to buy, sell, or hold.
- No predictions — findings describe the past, never a forecast.
- No trading recommendations or advice of any kind.
- No broker evaluation, ranking, or recommendation.
- No guarantee of improved results, profitability, or account safety.